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21 / 01 / 20

香港辦事處

 

British Pound

FXStreet: GBP/USD struggles to hold onto recovery gains beyond the 1.3000 mark. December 23 low remains on the bears’ radar whereas December 31 top will challenge the buyers during upside. GBP/USD trades near 1.3000 by the press time of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair stays inside the monthly falling trend channel while also remaining below 200-bar SMA. With this, sellers keep eyes on December 23 low, near 1.2900, as near-term key support during further declines. In a case where GBP/USD prices remain weak below 1.2900, November 22 bottom around 1.2820 could return to the chart.

 

On the upside, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s rise from November 22 to December 12, at 1.3086, can offer immediate resistance ahead of the said channel’s upper line and 200-bar SMA confluence close to 1.3100/05. If buyers manage to cross 1.3105, 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3170 can offer intermediate halt prior to fuelling the pair towards the high marked at the end of 2019, at 1.3285.

 

Japanese Yen

Reuters: The yen traded near an eight-month low versus the dollar on Tuesday, while the euro held steady as investors awaited meetings of the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank amid a slightly improving backdrop for global growth. The BOJ is first off the block with its two-day meeting ending later in the day. The central bank is expected to keep policy on hold, with traders focusing on comments from governor Haruhiko Kuroda to gauge the rates and economic outlook after the conclusion of a preliminary U.S.-China trade deal last week.

 

“The International Monetary Fund has revised up Japan’s economic forecasts due to government stimulus, and dollar/yen is likely to edge higher as equity markets show risk-on trades,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. The yen was little changed at 110.17 per dollar on Tuesday, close to its lowest since May 2019. At the two-day rate review that ends on Tuesday, the BOJ is set to keep its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1% and a pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around zero. The BOJ is also set to nudge up its growth forecasts as improved macroeconomic indicators take some pressure off the central bank for more stimulus, but traders will scrutinize Kuroda’s remarks after the policy decision.

 

Euro

FXStreet: EUR/USD fails to cross the confluence of 50-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, a three-week-old falling trend line add to the resistance. An ascending support line since early October offers additional rest below 100-day SMA. EUR/USD declines to 1.1090 during early Tuesday. That said, the pair failed to cross the confluence of 50-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its October 01 to December 31 rise during the previous day.

 

As a result, the quote is expected to revisit the 100-day SMA support level of 1.1073. However, an upward sloping trend line since early-October, at 1.1068 could restrict the pair’s further downside. In a case where sellers dominate below 1.1068, 50% And 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of 1.1060 and 1.1015 will return to the charts. Meanwhile, pair’s sustained break above 1.1100/05 resistance confluence can trigger fresh recovery to 1.1130 and then to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, a three-week-old falling trend line around 1.1155/60.

 

Global Markets

Reuters: Asian shares got off to a cautious start on Tuesday lacking any lead from Wall Street and after the IMF shaved its outlook for world growth this year, though it did offer a brighter view on China. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was fractionally down 0.04%. Moves elsewhere were likewise modest, with Japan's Nikkei down 0.1% and South Korea 0.04%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 eased 0.05%.

 

With the U.S. economy still outperforming its peers, the dollar remained well supported albeit in quiet trade. The dollar was steady on the yen at 110.17 just off an eight-month top of 110.28, while the euro was stuck near recent lows at $1.1093. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was steady at 97.593 after touching a four-week high at 97.579. Spot gold edged up to $1,561.35 per ounce, and back toward a seven-year peak of $1,610.90 reached last week. Oil prices rose to their highest in more than a week after two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down amid a military blockade, risking reducing crude flows from the OPEC member to a trickle. Brent crude futures firmed 37 cents to $65.22 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 17 cents to $58.71.

 

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