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02 / 04 / 20



British Pound

FXStreet: GBP/USD registers modest gains inside a short-term ascending triangle. 100-HMA adds strength to the triangle’s support. 1.2485/90 acts as an additional upside barrier. Despite recently declining from 1.2400 to 1.2380, GBP/USD remains inside a short-term ascending triangle formation amid the Asian session on Thursday. The repeated failures to cross 1.2485/90 resistance area, including March 12 low and March 27 high, portrays the Cable pair’s weakness. Even so, the triangle support and 100-HMA restrict the pair’s immediate declines. Should there be a clear break below 1.2355 key support confluence, March 27 low near 1.2145, followed by 1.2125, will quickly appear on the bears’ radar.


During the pair’s additional weakness past-1.2125, 200-HMA near 1.2055 and 1.2000 will be the key to watch. Alternatively, 1.2425 can act as the immediate resistance line to question the buyers in a case of the quote’s pullback, a break of which will extend recovery moves towards the triangle’s upper line, currently close to 1.2465. If at all the bulls manage to cross 1.2465, they can again confront 1.2485/90 area that holds the gate for the pair’s rise towards 200-day SMA, at 1.2665 now, on the daily chart.


US Dollar

Reuters: The dollar held gains on Thursday as investors rushed to the security of the world’s most liquid currency as the coronavirus pandemic caused massive disruptions to global trade. The dollar index against a basket of major six currencies gained 0.53% overnight as the U.S. currency advanced against most of its major peers except for the safe-haven yen.  In early Thursday trade, the euro was little changed at $1.0959 after 0.69% fall on Wednesday. Sterling fetched $1.2382, having lost 0.40% on Wednesday. The Australian dollar changed hands at $0.6080, having dropped 0.99% in the previous session. The dollar traded at 107.15 yen after it touched a two-week low of 106.925 on Wednesday.


Markets were spooked after U.S. President Donald Trump’s dire press briefing late Tuesday, in which he warned Americans of a “painful” two weeks ahead in fighting the coronavirus even with strict social distancing measures. “If America’s optimistic president is warning the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, what factory in their right mind would keep the doors open and workers on the payroll?” asked Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. “With only a few actual data points so far, the results indicate this is looking more like a depression than a garden-variety recession.” Economists’ forecast in Reuters poll range from 1.5 million to 5.25 million. “As we’ve seen yesterday, a deterioration in the U.S. economic outlook is likely to lead to strength in the yen against the U.S. dollar,” said Shin-ichiro Kadota, senior strategist at Barclays.


Japanese Yen

FXStreet: USD/JPY snaps two-day losing streak while bouncing off the two-week low. US dollar holds broad gains amid risk aversion. Japan’s Economy Minister signals support for production increase in the stimulus. USD/JPY fails to respect the key risk catalysts while portraying the broad US dollar strength, currently up 0.15% near 107.50, during the initial Tokyo session on Thursday.


Tokyo registered a record hit in daily coronavirus (COVID-19) cases extends school closure through May 06. Recently, Japan’s Economy Minister Nishimura said, “Will consider support for production increase and adopting of ECMO as part of the economic package for coronavirus.” While portraying the risk-off, the US 10-year treasury yields drop further below 0.60%, to 0.57%, whereas Japan’s NIKKEI decline 1.8% to 17,730 by the press time. Unless providing a daily closing beyond 21-day SMA, currently near 107.70, sellers remain hopeful.


Global Markets

Reuters: Asian equity markets and crude oil looked set for further losses on Thursday, after a dire warning about the U.S. coronavirus death toll and mounting evidence the fast-spreading disease has sent the world economy hurtling into a deep recession. Stocks on Wall Street fell more than 4% as the warning of a potentially massive death toll and growing evidence of a deep economic downturn reinforced expectations that corporate results will suffer in the first quarter and then turn sharply lower. Nikkei futures rose slightly, but sat about below the index’s cash close. Hong Kong futures were negative. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.67%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.64% in early trade.


Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose last week by the most since 2016, while gasoline demand suffered its biggest weekly drop ever as the coronavirus shut down businesses and stay-at-home mandates kept highways bare. U.S. crude inventories rose by 13.8 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said, in the biggest one-week increase since 2016. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 17 cents to settle at $20.31 a barrel, after sliding to a low of $19.90. June Brent crude fell $1.61 to settle at $24.74 a barrel. The global benchmark fell to $21.65 on Monday, its lowest since 2002, when the now-expired May contract was the front month. Spot gold rose 0.12% to $1,592.52 an ounce.




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