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11 / 08 / 20

香港辦事處

 

US Dollar

Reuters: The dollar held overnight gains on Tuesday following seven weeks of an almost relentless fall as investors clung to hopes of a bi-partisan stimulus deal in Washington and U.S. bond yields rebounded from multi-month lows. The dollar index jumped back to 93.597 from Friday’s two-year low of 92.495. Having fallen for seven straight weeks, the currency was due for a short-term corrective bounce, traders said. The euro changed hands at $1.1741 having eased 0.5% in previous trade. The dollar stood little changed at 105.96 yen. 

 

U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday signed executive orders restoring part of enhanced unemployment payments and suspending payroll taxes. U.S. congressional leaders and Trump administration officials said on Monday they were ready to resume negotiations on a coronavirus aid deal, although it was unclear whether Democrats and Republicans would be able to bridge their differences. On Monday, the S&P500 index rose to a five-month high while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to as high as 0.581%, its highest level in more than a week.

 

Investors are also keeping an eye on the rapidly deteriorating relationship between Washington and Beijing. China imposed sanctions on 11 U.S. citizens, including Republican lawmakers, following Washington’s sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese officials. The lira was quoted at 7.320 per dollar, just above Friday’s record low of 7.365. With more wild swings in the Turkish currency expected, implied volatilities, calculated from option prices, have soared, with three-month volatility rising to 26.5%, its highest since April last year.

 

Euro

FXStreet: EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart with the neckline support at 1.1696 (Aug 3 low). 

 

A daily close below that level would confirm the double top breakdown and create room for a sell-off to 1.1475 (target as per the measured height method). 

 

At press time, the pair is sidelined near 1.1735, having declined for the second straight trading day on Monday. A move to the double top necklines support at 1.1696 looks likely with the recent candlestick arrangement signaling a bullish-to-bearish trend change and bearish divergences of the the 14-day relative strength index and the slow stochastic. 

 

New Zealand Dollar

FXStreet: NZD/USD takes the bids near 0.6610, up 0.34% on a day, amid early Tuesday’s trading. In doing so, the kiwi pair snaps the previous two days’ downside but stays below 21-day SMA immediate resistance.

 

Other than the 21-day SMA level of 0.6625, the monthly top near 0.6690 and July 31 peak surrounding 0.6715/20 will also challenge the bulls during the pair’s further upside.

 

On the contrary, sellers will refrain from entries unless the quote drops below an ascending trend line from June 02, at 0.6570 now. Following that, June 23 high of 0.6534 will be on their radars. If at all the NZD/USD prices stay weak below 0.6530, 0.6450 and June month’s bottom close to 0.6385 will return to the charts. 

 

Global Markets

Reuters: Asian stocks were set for a cautious start on Tuesday, following a mixed Wall Street session and as investors eyed stalled U.S. stimulus efforts and worsening strains between Washington and Beijing over Hong Kong. Australian S&P/ASX 200 futures fell 0.05% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures slipped 0.04%. Tokyo markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures rose 0.43%. Attrill noted little progress on the next round of U.S. fiscal stimulus, more tit-for-tat posturing between China and the U.S., and a light calendar for Asian financial markets. 

 

Asked on Monday if he would respond to new Chinese sanctions on 11 U.S. citizens, including Republican lawmakers, President Donald Trump said he had already responded with sanctions on Hong Kong and Chinese officials last week. However, Trump also added that the Phase 1 trade deal with China means “very little,” which could set the stage for further tension when officials from both countries meet on Saturday to review progress over the first six months of the agreement. U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday. The Dow jumped 1%, the S&P 500 inched up and the Nasdaq closed lower as investors extended a rotation into value stocks from heavyweight technology-related names. 

 

U.S. congressional leaders and Trump administration officials said on Monday they were ready to resume negotiations on a coronavirus aid deal but talks remained deadlocked as Democrats said Republicans needed to meet them in the middle. The dollar index rose 0.18%. The Australian dollar was flat versus the greenback at $0.715. The Korean won weakened 0.01% versus the greenback at 1,185.73 per dollar. Oil rose, supported by the Chinese producer price data, rising energy demand and hopes for an agreement in the United States on more coronavirus-related economic stimulus. U.S. crude were up 0.12% to $41.99 per barrel and Brent was flat on the day.

 

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