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18 / 11 / 19

香港辦事處

 

British Pound

FXStreet: GBP/USD stays below the short-term key resistance line despite witnessing a gap-up opening. The one-week-old rising trend line can act as immediate support while 1.3000 could keep luring buyers. With the GBP/USD buyers’ failure to cross nearly a one-month-old falling trend line, a short-term rising support line gains market attention. The quote seesaws near 1.2917 during the early Asian session on Monday. Considering the fundamentals, today’s speech from the United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson is likely to offer another upside push to the cable after recently positive sentiment favored the pair’s run-up.

 

Technically, a week-long ascending trend line, at 1.2850, will be the immediate concern for sellers ahead of an upward sloping trend line since mid-October, around 1.2800, followed by 200-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA) level of 1.2740. In a case prices decline below 1.2740, bears will target 1.2700 and October 14 low at 1.2515. On the contrary, 1.3000 and the previous month high around 1.3015 can question bulls even if they manage to cross the aforementioned resistance line at 1.2930. Also doubting the pair’s upside is overbought conditions of 14-bar Relative Strength Index (RSI).

 

US Dollar

Reuters: Currencies off to cautious start, China-U.S. trade deal in focus. Major currencies were off to a cautious start on Monday as market players looked to whether Washington and Beijing can soon sign off on a deal to end their trade war that has been a drag on the global economic growth. Chinese state media Xinhua said on Sunday the two countries had “constructive talks” on trade in a high-level phone call on Saturday, but it gave no further details.

 

Against the yen, the dollar was traded at 108.75 yen, recovering from 108.235 touched on Thursday as rising hopes of a U.S.-China trade deal undercut the yen. The currency faces a resistance around 109.00, where it has its 200-day moving average. A break-through there could open the way for a retest of its five-month high around 109.50 touched earlier this month. Rising risk appetite was mildly positive for the euro, which stood at $1.10505, bouncing back from one-month low of $1.0989 set on Thursday. That helped to push down the dollar to 97.980, near its lowest levels since Nov. 7. “Currencies will be driven by headlines related to the U.S.-China trade issues. Markets are expecting some sort of answer to that soon,” said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.

 

Data from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Friday showed the U.S. manufacturing downturn deepened in October, with output at factories tumbling 0.6%, the most since May 2018, after dropping 0.5% in September. U.S. retail sales rebounded moderately in October but consumers did cut back on purchases of big-ticket household items like furniture and on discretionary spending. Still, hopes of a U.S.-China deal have kept investor optimism afloat, with U.S. stock prices hitting a record high on Friday. Elsewhere, sterling was extending its slow recovery to reach its highest levels in two weeks, trading at $1.2919, up 0.12% so far on the day. Investors will keep an eye on developments in Hong Kong, where police trapped hundreds of protesters inside a major university, sealing off roads in the area after almost two straight days of standoffs that have raised fears of a bloody showdown with both sides refusing to back down. The turmoil could hit Hong Kong share prices and could dent risk-sensitive currencies in the region, such as the Australian dollar. The Aussie traded down slightly at $0.6815.

 

Japanese Yen

FXStreet: USD/JPY holds steady near 108.75 amid Hong Kong woes, trade hopes. USD/JPY consolidates last week’s rebound below 109.00. Hong Kong unrest weighs on risk sentiment in Monday’s Asian trades. All eyes to remain on US-China trade negotiations amid light US calendar. The USD/JPY pair is seen treading water around 108.75 region, as a sense of caution prevails in Monday’s Asian trading amid escalating Hong Kong violence. The risk-off sentiment emerges as the underlying theme at the start of the week so far, with S&P 500 futures down -0.15%, Treasury yields losing nearly 0.50% while the Asian equity markets trade with mild losses. The anti-risk Yen, thus, remains underpinned, keeping a break above the 109 handle (200-DMA/ round number) elusive. Further, the US dollar extends its recent bearish momentum across its main peers amid losses in the Treasury yields, in turn, weighing down on USD/JPY. Markets eagerly await some clarity on the US-China trade front and FOMC minutes for fresh trading impetus, as the US calendar appears light this week.

 

Global Markets

Reuters: Asian share markets got the week off to a muted start on Monday as jaded investors awaited real evidence on progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute, though sentiment found support from another record close on Wall Street. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.06% in very light volumes. Japan's Nikkei added 0.05%, but remained short of its recent 13-month top. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 eased 0.1%, though that was from historic highs. Doubts about Sino-U.S. trade talks emerged early last week, although optimism gradually returned as U.S. officials sounded more positive.

 

In currency markets, the dollar was little changed against its main peers on Monday and well within recent tight trading ranges. Indeed, volatility in the market has been the lowest in decades recently and shows no sign of shifting. The dollar was steady on the yen at 108.72, after bouncing on Friday. Chart support lies at 108.23 with stiff resistance at 109.48. The euro, likewise, idled at $1.1054 having found support at $1.0987 last week. Investors are awaiting the first major speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde due on Friday for clues on future policy. Sterling nudged up to $1.2916 as more polls showed the Tories well ahead in the election race. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar was a shade softer at 97.954. Spot gold was flat at $1,468.45 per ounce as it tracks every passing twitch in risk appetite. Oil prices were supported after Brent touched a seven-week high on Friday. In early trade, Brent crude futures firmed 2 cents to $63.32, while U.S. crude added 3 cents to $57.75 a barrel.

 

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