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20 / 09 / 19

香港辦事處

 

British Pound

FXStreet: Successful trading beyond 100-day simple moving average (DMA) fails to lend much strength to the GBP/USD pair as it struggles around 1.2520 during Friday morning. A rising trend-line since August-end, seems to challenge buyers. The pair has a strong static resistance area around 1.2590, the next probable bullish target.


The GBP/USD pair hit a fresh multi-week high in the US afternoon of 1.2560, getting a boost from comments from EU’s Juncker who said that if the objectives of the backstop are met through alternative arrangements, the backstop won´t be needed, adding that there could be a deal by the October deadline. The news gave a lift to Sterling, which earlier in the day fell to 1.2437. The UK released earlier in the day, August Retail Sales, which unexpectedly fell by 0.2% when compared to a month earlier, and increased by 2.7% YoY, less than the 2.9% expected. The Bank of England announced its latest monetary policy decision, but was a non-event, as MPC decided to maintain the status quo as expected, amid Brexit uncertainty.


Regarding Brexit, the Supreme Court completed the three-day hearing on whether PM Johnson’s decision to suspend the Parliament was lawful. The court will release its decision on the matter early next week. 

 

US Dollar

Reuters: The dollar nursed losses against most major currencies on Friday, as central banks in Switzerland and the UK refrained from following the Federal Reserve in cutting rates, while risk appetite ebbed on caution about U.S-China trade talks.

 
Sterling hit a two-month high of $1.2560 against the greenback overnight after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said he thought Brussels could reach a deal with Britain to leave the European Union. The Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all kept their policies on hold on Thursday. Their currencies rose and mostly held gains in Asian trade. The Australian dollar held at $0.6793 in morning trade, close to its lowest since Sept. 4, while the New Zealand dollar hit $0.6297, its weakest since Sept. 3. The dollar was steady buying 108.00 Japanese yen, after falling from close to a seven-week peak hit on Thursday. It was slightly weaker against the Swiss franc at 0.9921 per dollar and the euro at $1.1050 and flat against a basket of currencies at 98.334.


Investors are also focused on U.S.-China trade talks in Washington, aimed at laying the groundwork for high-level discussions next month. However, most traders are cautious. Few signs of progress have emerged and with a wide gulf between both sides remaining, it is weighing on the recent risk-on mood. The Chinese yuan steadied to just under a one-week low at 7.0990 per dollar in offshore trade, with investors eyeing a possible benchmark lending rate reduction later in the day. 

 

Japanese Yen

FXStreet: USD/JPY trades modestly flat, with the bias leaning to the downside, as we wind down into the close for the week following a data-heavy number of sessions which have left more questions unanswered and the outlook murky. USD/JPY has been trading in a tight range in Asia, between a low of 107.92 and a high of 108.08. Overnight, the pair ranged between 107.80 and 108.10, reversing the FOMC bounce and brushing off the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone as US stocks failed to convince on the upside and markets remains sidelined. 


Following the hawkish rate cut from the Federal Reserve, markets are still pricing 25bp of easing by year-end, and a terminal rate of 1.17%. As for the Bank of Japan, if today's Consumer Price Index is anything to go by, the central bank may well be forced to act. "Japan Aug national CPI is seen decelerating to 0.3%yr overall, 0.5%yr on the core measures, the sort of reading that is behind the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone yesterday which sets the stage for fresh easing steps end-October," analysts at Westpac explained. 

 

Global Markets

Reuters: Asian share prices inched higher on Friday as economic stimulus around the world eased fears over slowing growth, while crude oil prices climbed on concerns that last weekend’s attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities still pose supply risks. 


MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.15% though it is on course to post its first weekly decline in five, hit by sizable losses in Hong Kong and India. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.46% to come within striking distance of its year-to-date peak and U.S. and European shares also stood near their best levels this year. Monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week and by the European Central Bank last week underpinned investor sentiment. China also cut its new one-year benchmark lending rate for the second month in a row on Friday, by 5 basis points as Beijing seeks to guide borrowing costs lower for an economy hit by the Sino-U.S. trade war. 


Saudi-led forces on Friday launched a military operation on northern Yemen against what it described as “legitimate military targets”, an incident that could aggravate regional tensions. Washington said on Thursday it was building a coalition to deter Iranian threats while Tehran has warned Trump against being dragged into a war in the Middle East and said it would meet any offensive action with a crushing response. Brent crude futures rose 0.78% to $64.90 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.14% to $58.79 per barrel. 

 

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