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22 / 07 / 19

香港辦事處

 

British Pound

FXStreet: With the Brexit positive news making the rounds during the weekend, the GBP/USD pair is on the bids around 1.2510 amid initial Asian trading session on Monday.


The GBP/USD pair has closed the week with losses around a daily descendant trend line coming from June’s high, which broke to the upside on Thursday. Technical readings in the daily chart indicate that the bearish trend remains firmly in place, as it spent the last few days below a firmly bearish 20 SMA, which gains downward traction below the larger ones, while technical indicators recovered from their lows, but lost strength upward within negative levels.


Boris Johnson keeps bracing to become the PM that delivers Brexit with or without a deal by October 31.  Over the weekend, thousands of demonstrators have marched in London against leaving the EU, while Ireland's deputy PM, Simon Coveney said that, should the UK leave the Union without a deal, the UK will be to blame. He added that Ireland would have to protect its place in the single market, defending the current withdrawal agreement that PM candidates called “dead” a couple of weeks ago. This Monday, CBI will release July’s Industrial Trends Survey - Orders, previously at -15.

 

US Dollar

Reuters: The dollar held recent gains on Monday as investors tempered some of their expectations for deep U.S. interest rate cuts this month and heightened Middle East tensions supported safe-haven assets. While currency market focus will mostly centre on global central bank decisions scheduled for the next two weeks, investors are also watching for any developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations. 


The dollar hovered at levels it hit on Friday, around 107.73 yen, but was trapped in the middle of a 107-109 range where it has traded for a month. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was barely changed at 97.147 after gaining 0.35% last week. The euro was flat at $1.1217, after declining 0.4% last week. Confrontation in the global oil trade’s most important waterway has escalated with footage showing the Iranian military defying a British warship when it seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. 


That lifted oil prices and kept the dollar close to where it left after volatile trade on Friday when the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president. Expectations for a rate cut of half a percentage point at the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting edged out further on Monday to hit 14.5%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, down from as high as 71% last week. Markets still see it as a certainty the Fed will cut rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point at the meeting.

 

Japanese Yen

FXStreet: USD/JPY is starting out in Tokyo trade slightly bid, supported in the high end of the 107 handle despite a risk-off theme surrounding the latest Iran/UK and US risk which heightened at the end of last week.


The USD/JPY pair is technically bearish, as it finished the week around the 23.6% retracement of its July’s decline, having retreated from a second consecutive week from near the 50% retracement of the same decline. In the daily chart, the 20 DMA stands pat at around 108.00, reinforcing the figure as resistance, while the 100 and 200 DMA maintain their bearish slopes well above the shorter one. Technical indicators hold within negative levels, the Momentum heading marginally lower and the RSI recovering just modestly, not enough to suggest a bottom has been reached.


Early Friday, Japan released its Merchandise Trade Balance, which posted a larger-than-expected surplus of ¥589.5B, but as a result of an unexpected drop in imports, down by 5.2% when compared to a year earlier. Exports also declined in the same period by more-than-anticipated, falling by 6.7%. The positive headline was overshadowed by falling imports, a consequence of the trade war lead by the US. This Monday, BOJ’s Governor Kuroda is due to speak at the IMF, in Washington.

 

Global Markets

Reuters: Asia stocks eased on Monday as investors reduced expectations of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while heightened Middle East tensions following an Iranian seizure of a British tanker lifted crude oil prices. 


MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%. South Korea's KOSPI shed 0.3%, Australian stocks lost 0.2% and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.5%. Global equity markets had risen briefly towards the end of last week after dovish comments by New York Fed President John Williams boosted the prospect of the central bank lowering rates by 50 basis points at its July 30-31 meeting. But the stock markets gave back those gains on Friday, with Wall Street shares ending in negative territory, after the New York Fed walked back Williams’ comments by saying his speech was not about potential policy action at the upcoming Fed meeting.


In commodities, Brent crude futures were up 1.26% at $63.26 per barrel following a gain of about 0.9% on Friday. Crude was buoyant after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Friday captured a British-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf after Britain seized an Iranian vessel earlier this month, further raising tensions along a vital international oil shipping route. U.S. crude futures advanced 0.83% to $56.09 per barrel. Gold slipped from a six-year high as the dollar firmed and as expectations for a deep rate cut by the Fed were dialed back. Spot gold traded at $1,425.82 an ounce after going as high as $1,452.60 on Friday, its strongest since May 2013. 

 

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